It’s safe to say the Women’s Asian Cup has been one hell of a tournament – and it’s not even finished!
Four teams remain, and only three matches are left to play, so it’s time to look at how the teams might fair and who might ultimately win the trophy.
South Korea vs The Philippines – THE Game to Watch
Never have we been so happy to be wrong. We thought the Philippines would have struggled to get out of their group, but two group wins and an epic penalty shootout later, the Philippines find themselves in their first-ever semi-final. It would be remiss not to mention that with their victory over Chinese Taipei, the Philippines have qualified for their first-ever World Cup – not just first-ever Women’s World Cup, but first-ever World Cup.
Bolden’s heroics, Olivia Davies McDaniel’s saves (equally special mention for the superb Kira Fontanilla who filled in against Australia on her darned debut), Guilliou’s tenacity and Quezada’s attacking quality have made this brave group of upstarts the team to watch and root for. Alen Stajcic has brought together many ha and elevated them to star level.
Their next test? A stubborn South Korea.
As Colin Bell had mentioned in the post-match press conference after the team’s win over Myanmar, South Korea didn’t score a tonne of goals. Yet, they knocked out favourites Australia and drew with reigning champions Japan to make it into the semi-finals. Ji So-Yun has been pivotal as per usual as South Korea’s lead goalscorer (but for an own Vietnamese goal and Lee Guem-min’s goal against Myanmar, Ji would be South Korea’s only goalscorer, and South Korea’s defence has been strong enough only to concede a single so far.
Predicting this game will be like trying to predict lottery numbers – we made the mistake of underestimating the Philippines before. While they lost heavily against Australia, that’s a team renowned for scoring many goals. South Korea are not prolific scorers – they seem to adopt a more hit and run approach in that they score and then close out the game for the remainder. The Philippines, on the other hand, are showing themselves to be equally adept at scoring as they are defending. If Long, Randle, Madarang and Harrison can keep Ji, Lee Guem-min, and co quiet, their long balls find Quezada, Bolden and McDaniel in good space; South Korea could be in trouble.
So, what do we think will be the outcome? We hope that the Philippines can continue their fairy-tale run as it does true wonders for a growing women’s football side. The Philippines do not have the extensive resources of the South Koreans, but if they continue this run, more will come to them. Do we think they can beat South Korea? As Alen Stajcic has repeated time and time, anyone can beat anyone on the day, do not rule it out.
Japan vs China PR
The two remaining super-heavyweights of the Cup go head-to-head in a clash that can only be described as two offensive powerhouses butting heads.
Japan’s only blemish in the Asian Cup so far has been the 1-1 draw with South Korea, but they’ve scored a colossal sixteen goals in the tournament so far. Sugasawa had a blinder against Thailand, scoring four of Japan’s seven against Thailand. Ueki has been in imperious form with three in four, Narumiya has helped herself to two in four, and Japan’s defence has been solid, conceding only once against South Korea.
China PR, meanwhile, had had an equally easy journey through the group stages and quarterfinals, conceding only once when Vietnam took a surprise lead in the quarterfinal but have been dominant in front of goal. Wang Shuang and Wang Shanshan have scored in all three of their games, while Tang Jiali has also popped up in front of the goal with two in three.
China has made no secret of their determination and confidence in winning the Asian Cup and beating reigning champions. Japan would undoubtedly do that confidence no harm, potentially setting them on their way to their first major trophy since 2006. Japan, meanwhile, certainly have enough quality across the pitch to ensure that they do not slip up against China.
The outcome of this match could be an interesting one – would it necessarily be an upset if China came out on top? Not really, as China are a remarkably strong side and shouldn’t be viewed as “underdogs”. Would Japan expect to win given their star-studded team that boasts World Cup winners? Absolutely.
On this one, we must give the win to Japan, but it will be a tight game. Both are clinical in front of goal and equally defensively sound, so unless either side’s defence has a lapse in concentration, it’ll be a tight but hard-fought victory. Potentially 1-0 or 2-1 to Japan.
The Final
With the semi-finals booked, join us for a bit of fun and see into the future with the different permutations of the final. Let’s start with perhaps the juiciest options:
The Philippines vs Japan
The classic underdog story that refuses to die, the Philippines are 51 places below Japan in FIFA’s rankings with a squad that has never been in continental, or international, final.
What makes this so enticing is, at least on paper, the sheer gulf in quality between the two teams. Japan has a World Cup under their belt and has won the Asian Cup twice in a row – they also have a team that includes countless stars from across the world’s various leagues, including the WSL, NWSL, Bundesliga, Damallsvenskan and WE League.
Would this be a complete demolition of the Philippines? You would think so at the beginning of the tournament, particularly considering the group they were drawn into. And yet they kept the scoreline down to 4-0 against Australia with a debutant goalkeeper, beat Thailand and Chinese Taipei, and could very well enjoy a sensational victory over South Korea.
If they are to prevail over Japan, it would most likely be a case of a smash and grab victory in the dying moments of the match. If Japan is firing on all cylinders and the Philippines allow the Japanese too much time and space, they could ultimately end the Philippines fairy-tale.
South Korea vs Japan
With South Korea being relatively shot-shy, it would be not easy to look past Japan coming out on top. Ji’s influence in the middle for South Korea would not be the magic solution to their lack of shots, and Japan’s defence is mobile and technical enough that their transition from defence to the offence would be lightning quick.
If South Korea were to defeat Japan, they would have to either score very early and park the bus or become a relentless attacking machine capable of overloading the Japanese defence to an unprecedented degree.
Are we being harsh on the South Koreans? Yes, possibly. They are an excellent side with excellent players, but Japan is more ruthless as a team. Brutal doesn’t always mean better, but outscoring the opposition is always a better tactic than relying on a one-goal margin.
Are we being too optimistic towards Japan? Perhaps. The 1-1 draw with South Korea on the group stage clearly shows that on their day, South Korea are more than capable of matching Japan, even if it took until the 85th minute for South Korea to equalise.
On paper, this would be a Japanese win, but thankfully, football is not won on paper. South Korea are more than capable of beating anyone on their day, and so far, they haven’t put a foot particularly wrong in this tournament and did defeat the favourites in the quarterfinals.
China PR vs The Philippines
As with the other matches the Philippines have played, do not discount them. China PR would undoubtedly be a different test to the one posed by South Korea, but having faced Australia, put in a spirited performance and learned from their shortcomings, the extra boost of being in a final would likely aid the Philippines.
Yet China is also a different beast, almost an exact copy of the dynamic nature of the Philippines. They work immensely hard for one another, always providing options, always making runs and pressing with terrifying determination and stamina.
It would be tough to call this final – China is a genuinely good side and has been building steadily to compete with the best of Asia. At the same time, the Philippines are the plucky upstarts who, according to all logic, form and research, should not have made it past the group stages. Both are team-centric, rely heavily on pragmatic approaches to football, and are moving up the ranks.
If this is to be the final, expect a classic.
China PR vs South Korea
This would be an exciting game and undoubtedly akin to the potential Japan vs South Korea final. China’s relentless attacking onslaught might overwhelm the South Korean defence, but the South Koreans are good enough in protection to prevent that from becoming too much of a problem.
China, on paper, has enjoyed more success in their time than South Korea, with any final variation being the first in their history. If South Korea can defeat the Philippines and face China, it’ll be a very hard-fought match.
South Korea, meanwhile, might not have the same experience as China, but that doesn’t make them any less suitable aside. What benefits South Korea is some of their players’ experiences in the upper echelons of women’s football across Europe. Ji So-Yun has won title after title with Chelsea, Cho So-Hyun is part of an astonishing with Tottenham, Lee Guem-min is showing that Brighton is not in the WSL to make up numbers, and Lee Young-Ju is frequently facing the best in the world in Alexia Putellas, Caroline Graham Hansen and Fridolina Rolfo. Only Tang Jiali, for China, currently plays outside of the Chinese CWSL; Wang Shuang enjoyed a stint with PSG between 2018 and 2019.
Once again, it would be an exciting match, but South Korea would take home the title.
Written by Unnati Naidu and James Whitehead
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